New D3 Tourney Selection Process Favors NESCAC

More NESCAC lacrosse teams are likely to qualify for the NCAA tournament this year, thanks to changes in how D3 at-large selections are made. Instead of a selection committee that could apply subjective criteria, the NCAA approved a system last summer that would instead fill the 10 at-large teams based solely on a National Power Index (RPI) calculation that heavily weights strength of schedule. If that system had been in place last spring, Amherst almost certainly would have been a fifth tournament selection from the NESCAC instead of being “bubble out.” Williams may have slipped ahead of tournament selections W&L and Roanoke based on the Eph’s strength of schedule. 

The NCAA applied the NPI to pick at-large teams for the men’s D3 soccer tournament last fall and the results were encouraging for NESCAC lacrosse programs – a record eight teams from the conference were selected for the soccer tournament. Is it realistic to have that many lacrosse teams dancing in May? 

“I don't think the NESCAC is going to have eight teams, but we had four last year, all of them were very competitive – two in the final four,” Connecticut College Head Coach Jim Nagle told us in our podcast interview this week. “And the fifth team, the last team out, was Amherst and they were excellent. So I think we certainly could be looking at, with the new NPI, maybe five or six teams.”

The formula used to calculate the NPI can vary across D3 sports and can even vary by gender within a sport. For men’s lacrosse, the formula has been set and can be found at this link, along with a helpful FAQ. It weights strength of schedule at 75% and win-loss record at only 25%. The formula also applies a modest Quality Win Base Multiplier that would have boosted the value of, for example, the Hamilton win over Tufts during the NESCAC tournament. Those factors are very favorable for the NESCAC and Liberty League which have strong teams from top to bottom. You will likely see other leagues scramble to schedule top 20 OOC opponents to boost their SOS and offset the easy wins within their conferences.

Coach Nagle doesn’t think NESCAC teams necessarily need to follow that prescription. “We're fortunate enough in the NESCAC to have the strongest conference in the country and I'm not really worried about our non-conference. We'll play local teams and we'll do some trips,” Nagle says. “But my main focus is the conference for sure.”

By the way, three of the four teams in the D3 soccer final four were from the NESCAC and the championship game featured a thrilling PK victory by Amherst over Connecticut College. Importantly, five of those NESCAC teams hosted their first two games in the tournament. Unlike in the past when the NCAA emphasized geographic proximity to create brackets, in the summer of 2024, the NCAA Management Council approved a waiver of this practice, which they said “allows flexibility for sport committees to ensure that top-seeded teams do not face each other in the early rounds of championships. The waiver applies for up to two years to allow time for the impact of the change to be implemented and assessed.” In the case of lacrosse, that means that the NCAA tournament will not necessarily lump NESCAC teams into brackets that would require them to play each other in early rounds, just because they are an easy bus ride apart. 

Perhaps not coincidentally, in each of the past three seasons, only four NESCAC lacrosse teams were granted a tournament spot (one AQ and three at-large bids). When that system relied on subjective humans on the selection committee, there seemed to be a soft quota in place. The computer-generated NPI will have no such subjective inputs.

If Amherst and Williams fans want to go down the road of “what might have been,” we did some analysis on the numbers from the 2024 season. While we don’t have access to the exact algorithm for NPI, a pretty good proxy is the RPI calculation from last season. RPI also heavily weights strength of schedule. Below you can see how things likely would have shaken out. Before W&L fans begin a petition drive against the new system, it is important to remember that their SOS was hurt last season by some perennial Top 20 opponents having a down year: York, Denison, Gettysburg and Stevenson. Given Roanoke’s OOC schedule this coming spring (relatively weak), they are now probably AQ or bust. They almost certainly would have lost out to Amherst last year if the new formula had been in place.

2024 Pool C At Large Bids 

(W/L record & final RPI ranking)

Tufts (13-3) #1

RIT (17-2) #2

Bowdoin (11-5) #4

St. Lawrence (14-3) #6

Middlebury (10-8) #8

Chris. Newport (14-5) #10

Swarthmore (14-2) #12

Union (NY) (12-5) #13

Wash. & Lee (13-5) #20

Roanoke (14-5) #26

Highest RPI Rankings Missing Tournament:

Amherst (10-6) #9

Williams (9-7) #16

Hamilton (9-7) #18

Under the new rules, Amherst and Williams likely would have made the tournament, bumping out W&L and Roanoke. Hamilton would have been the “bubble out” team. This new system is going to heavily favor the NESCAC teams with a real chance to get six into the tournament. Teams in the MAC, ODAC and NCAC should probably take a page out of Denison’s book. The Big Red has loaded up on top OOC games like RIT, Salisbury and Amherst this year to compensate for some weaker conference opponents.

For more info on the changes, this D3 Datacast blog post provides a good overview.