Six NESCAC Teams Qualify for the NCAA Tournament with Trinity Still on the Bubble

A record six NESCAC teams are now locked in for the NCAA playoffs while a seventh team, Trinity, is favored for the last at-large berth in the tournament. Regardless of today’s outcomes, Tufts, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Amherst, Middlebury and Williams are guaranteed a spot in the big dance based on the new NPI selection criteria used by the NCAA for the first time this year. Trinity awaits the outcome of the Wesleyan at Tufts and the CNU at Salisbury games today to learn their fate. If either Wesleyan or Salisbury wins, Trinity will grab the last spot. 

“A loss for both Wesleyan and Salisbury looks like it would put Kean ahead of Trinity,” Lacrosse Reference founder Zack Capozzi told CACLAX today. “It would put Kean at 67.428 and Trinity at 67.371.” On the other hand, if either Wesleyan or Salisbury wins today, Trinity will make the playoffs, according to Capozzi.

In our story back in January, we had forecast that more NESCAC teams were likely to make the NCAA playoffs because of the new NPI system. The revised format relies on objective computer analysis rather than the opinions and “eye tests” of a human selection committee.  Four NESCAC teams made the tournament in 2023 and 2024. Many critics thought that Amherst was short-changed last year and deserved the last at-large bid based on a strong resume in a tough conference.

Going into today’s NESCAC championship game, Tufts and Bowdoin are guaranteed a coveted top eight seed. Those highly-ranked teams will host two playoff games next Saturday and Sunday. Wesleyan currently sits within the top eight, but a loss to Tufts today would likely drop them just behind W&L for the eighth seed, requiring the Cardinals to hit the road for their playoff games. 

The top 24 seeds in the tournament won’t play again until next Saturday, while the bottom 16 teams in the 40-team field will have play-in games Wednesday. The official bracket will be unveiled at 9:00 pm EDT on NCAA.com.

Massey, one of the only oddsmakers for D3 lacrosse, says that Salisbury has a 74% chance of winning and Tufts has an 82% chance today. While the Massey forecast reflects some legitimate computer modeling, the actual regular season results imply much closer match-ups. Tufts only edged Wesleyan 20-19 in OT while CNU led 9-8 after three quarters before Salisbury went on a run to win 12-9.

Capozzi, a data analytics professional in his day job, simulated the NCAA’s NPI model and provides near real time updates to the NPI standings. You can follow along with the Lacrosse Reference analysis here.